Rate cuts by year-end

  • Fed: 47 bps (99% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
  • ECB: 25 bps (91% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
  • BoE: 49 bps (58% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
  • BoC: 25 bps (78% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
  • RBA: 70 bps (64% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
  • RBNZ: 27 bps (82% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
  • SNB: 15 bps (53% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

Rate hikes by year-end

  • BoJ: 14 bps (98% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

This week we had monetary policy announcements from the BoJ, the Fed, the SNB and the BoE. We haven't seen much change in interest rates expectations though because the central banks continue to keep a neutral stance and wait for more economic data throughout the summer. The volatility in the markets has also been very low due to this boring period of waiting.

Source: Forex Live