EUR/CHF is clinging to key support at 0.9210, the lower boundary of its long-standing range. While the decline has paused, a clear move above the 200-DMA (0.9410/0.9430) is needed to confirm a short-term recovery.
The US Dollar (USD) had another bad day on Wednesday, suffering several losses – EUR/USD even briefly traded above 1.14. However, this was not really due to the data, which was mixed at best.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered the clearest message since 'liberation day' yesterday, which was unquestionably hawkish, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.
We expect a 25bp rate cut by the ECB today. Consensus is unanimous, and markets are fully pricing in the move, so the impact on the euro may prove limited, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.
The NZD/USD pair retreats from the vicinity of mid-0.5900s, or a fresh year-to-date high touched during the Asian session this Thursday, in reaction to stronger-than-expected consumer inflation figures from New Zealand.
Gold price extended its record streak for the third time in the week as the Greenback weakened due to tensions between China and the US related to trade policies. These tensions are increasing the appeal of safety assets like precious metals.
The NZD/USD pair advanced for a third session on Wednesday, holding near the 0.5900 region ahead of the Asian session. The pair saw modest gains and remained confined within a relatively tight range between 0.58865 and 0.59308, suggesting a steady bullish tone.
The GBP/JPY pair continued to edge lower on Wednesday, falling toward the 188 zone and marking a daily decline of nearly 0.9%. The cross remains anchored near the bottom of its range between 187.668 and 189.664, reinforcing the weight of recent selling pressure.
AUDUSD testing resistance at 0.6390, break above could lead to gains towards 0.6428. Support seen at 0.6326-0.6340, downside potential to 100-day MA at 0.6289.
The British Pound advanced during the North American session, posting soft gains of 0.14% against the Greenback as inflation slowed to its weakest level in three months. This adds to pressure on the Bank of England to reduce interest rates.
Euro (EUR) is up an impressive 0.7% against the US Dollar (USD) and recovering back toward the upper end of its four- session range, strengthening in tandem with its regional peers Swiss Franc (CHF) and Swedish Krona (SEK), Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) lost ground yesterday after weaker than expected CPI data lifted market speculation that the BoC could cut interest rates at today’s policy decision (13:45 GMT), Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
Pound Sterling (GBP) is up 0.3% vs. the US Dollar (USD) and a mid-performer among the G10 currencies as it extends its gains for a seventh consecutive session and pushes toward its prior (September) highs around 1.34, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
The USD is trading defensively this morning again, while US Treasurys are weaker (and underperforming) and US equity futures are softer. Global stocks are lower after the US government said it would require Nvidia to obtain a license to export one of its chips to China.
While a Bank of Canada hold is widely expected, it's the looming US-Canada trade tensions and the outcome of Canada's late-April election that may shape the CAD's path.
Much has happened since the US 'Liberation Day' on 2 April. Tariffs have been introduced, only to be partially suspended. Negotiations have begun, though seemingly without much prospect of success. And new tariffs are already being planned. Of course, all this has not left the markets unscathed.
Despite global equity market moves, EUR/JPY is diverging from its usual correlations, driven by a dollar sell-off and repatriation flows from Europe and Japan.
GBP/USD continues to benefit from broader dollar weakness and reserve diversification trends, with FX managers potentially trimming dollar holdings in favor of currencies like sterling. The pair also closely follows EUR/USD moves, as Europe embraces fiscal stimulus.
Dollar Index (DXY) inched modestly higher overnight but continues to trade near recent lows. Trump launched a probe into the need for tariffs on critical minerals, the latest action in an expanding trade war that has targeted key sectors of the global economy.
The Japanese Yen’s (JPY) solid current account and foreign asset position continue to pressure USD/JPY lower, even as the rare decoupling from US Treasury yields unfolds. While this divergence may prove short-lived, markets could settle into a lower USD/JPY as Fed cuts materialize later this year.
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