That is very much a given with market odds placing that at ~94% ahead of the decision later. And especially not after the last two UK CPI reports in April and May respectively. So, there likely won't be any surprises with the rate decision but what about the bank rate vote? Now, that is where things might get interesting.

The expected vote split would be 7-2 in favour of holding the bank rate unchanged. The two dissenters expected to vote for a rate cut are Dhingra and Taylor. However, Barclays and Morgan Stanley are two that predict a potential for a third dissenter. The former sees Ramsden joining that camp while the latter sees Breeden being the one to do so.

In any case, that shouldn't change the odds of there being no rate cut until possibly September - at least not by too much.

In terms of the statement language, I wouldn't expect much of a change either. The central bank should retain its "gradual" and "careful" approach in the guidance on rates while reaffirming a more meeting-by-meeting modus operandi. In essence, there might be very little to work with as it will be rehash of the May statement.

As for the next rate cut, a host of analysts are noting that it will come in August. Those who are forecasting as such are BofA, Citi, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, and TD Securities.

A standout call is from Barclays who sees today's meeting as being a live one. They note that there is "a risk of 3 more internals voting for a cut in a decision to cut to 4.00%". They then see back-to-back cuts after taking the bank rate to 3.50% if the one today materialises.

Source: Forex Live