4 oil price forecasts, bleak scenario is up to US$130/bbl

Reuters had a piece up earlier that included four oil price forecasts. In brief:

Citibank analysts said Brent crude could remain 15–20% above pre-conflict levels—around $75 to $78 per barrel—if the Iran-Israel conflict disrupts 1.1 million bpd of Iranian oil exports:

• Iran, OPEC’s third-largest producer, pumps 3.3 million bpd. Citi estimates that a 3 million bpd disruption over several months could lift prices to $90.

However, Citi notes the actual impact may be muted:

• Iranian exports have already been declining

• China has scaled back purchases

• Global supply may have already adjusted

They add that OPEC could boost output to help offset any disruption, and a Hormuz shutdown would likely be brief.

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More:

• J.P. Morgan warned that if the conflict widened to close the Strait of Hormuz, oil could surge to $120–130.

• Goldman Sachs sees a $10/bbl geopolitical risk premium currently in prices

• Barclays sees $85 oil if Iranian exports are halved, and above $100 in a worst-case regional war